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Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Alberto
01L.Alberto A cluster of thunderstorms have formed east of Central America. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html Storm05 14:39, 2 June 2006 (UTC) :I think this will become Alberto. The GFS develops it, and it is a very trustworthy model. It's intersting to note that, whether it develops or not, it may impact New England. :June Nor-easter, anyone? ;) -Winter123 19:09, 2 June 2006 (UTC) ::Then again... maybe not. ::-Winter123 19:19, 2 June 2006 (UTC) "THE GFS MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT...OTHER COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS FORECAST." I think this has a good chance of becoming Alberto..maybe it will strike on 6/6/6 rather then like some of you people said it would develop??/ It is really possible. 4 days to make landfall and develop...its kind of creepy..well i give it a 60% chance to develop.--65.8.53.56 02:47, 3 June 2006 (UTC) :Latest model still curves it up into Maine, but does not develop it as strongly. Should be an interesting storm, whether it becomes tropical or not! As of Now, I don't think it will be alberto. -Winter123 04:29, 3 June 2006 (UTC) " A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL SWIRL WAS DETACHED FROM ANY CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE LOW CENTER" "GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW SOME POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF IT IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LOW." Looks like it could develop! --HurricaneRo 21:27, 3 June 2006 (UTC) Its also in the tropical weather outlook now!--HurricaneRo 21:28, 3 June 2006 (UTC) ::"DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY." Wow, THAT sounds promising. No models develop it anymore. *Sigh...* Maybe a in week 3... -Winter123 01:33, 4 June 2006 (UTC) 90L.INVEST New invest in Carribean near the south-west coast of Cuba!-Code1390 15:09, 8 June 2006 (UTC) :http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.html. Looks likes things are getting a bit more serious. (also, you beat me to posting this, bah) --Guillaume Hebert 15:07, 8 June 2006 (UTC)) ::Finally, something to possibly watch. Hurricanehink (talk) 15:16, 8 June 2006 (UTC) :::What's ironic here is which AoI is it? I think its NONE of them... why am I not suprised?--Nilfanion (talk) 15:25, 8 June 2006 (UTC) ::::Not exactly a feat, seeign as most of our AOIs were posted in the first two-three days of June (ie, Friday through Sunday or so), so they're not exactly up to date by now. --Guillaume Hebert 15:39, 8 June 2006 (UTC) From the 11:30 am EDT tropical weather outlook: A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR BELIZE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE... WESTERN CUBA... AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER... AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE... GUATEMALA... AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. I also looked at a satellite loop, and say that this system has flared up only recently. So I would gather that the models are projecting this to be a significant system with a potential for development. --EMS | Talk 15:55, 8 June 2006 (UTC) :I agree, this thing flared up only recently. When the new models comeout, it may treat this thing a little different. -Code1390 15:58, 8 June 2006 (UTC) ::Shouldn't it be 92L Invest? Anyway, I smell Alberto here... CrazyC83 16:33, 8 June 2006 (UTC) :::You're correct, 90L/Q was the February South Atlantic storm and 90/1L was that swirling mass off the Eastern US coast in April. I wonder if they will notice this and change it? Also, at 0845 UTC one year ago, 90L.INVEST was tagged for what would become Tropical Storm Arlene. -- RattleMan 17:12, 8 June 2006 (UTC) ::::I give it a 70% chance of developing right now. Unlike Arlene, though, I think it would be a quick-landfaller (and perhaps a Pacific storm) or a Cuba-Bahamas-out to sea storm. The Gulf is blocked by the jet stream. CrazyC83 18:40, 8 June 2006 (UTC) :::::It's looking pretty good, although the GFS isn't developing it as of now. If anything happens with this, it will slowly move NNW I think. -Winter123 19:55, 8 June 2006 (UTC) ::::::Check the Model Diagnostic Discussion for model trends and information every 12 hours around 0530/1730 UTC until NHC starts the system. If it forms, it is likely to move through the southern Gulf of Mexico somewhere from Tampico southward, similar to Bret/Gert/Jose/Stan last year. Thegreatdr 20:41, 8 June 2006 (UTC) :::::::I think it will curve eastward towards South Florida then rush out to sea after crossing the peninsula. It's farther north and west than I first thought. CrazyC83 23:56, 8 June 2006 (UTC) ::::::::Yea, the current GFDL does have it merging with a stronger system and doing that. Almost like Arlene. I'd like to see what it would do after it reentered the Atlantic. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 00:39, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :::::::::Just keep in mind this was the low that was supposed to recurve across Cuba LAST weekend. This weak circulation has been drifting westward since it was noted 5-6 days ago just northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border, and previous to that across the southwest Caribbean. Until it maintains persistent, deep convection, it will follow the low level flow slowly westnorthwestward. Thegreatdr 13:14, 9 June 2006 (UTC) Latest TWO: SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR EASTERN YUCATAN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM LAND WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. --Coredesat 02:54, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :Check this out! The latest GFS loop develops it, and does just as you two^ said! It puts it onto the Gulf, but then literally EXPLODES it once it moves NE and gets over the gulf stream! This should be a very interesting system... I think it will be alberto!! :-) -Winter123 04:33, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::Its 1:30 AM here in florida as i write this and thers no chance of me getting to sleep after seeing that loop for two reasons. 1.) It is doing almost EXACTLY what I predicted alberto to do in my prediction on my user page. 2.) I live just south of where its supposed to hit. I too, was shocked at seeing what it did when it reached the Gulf Stream and I can promise you all, this will not be tropical storm Alberto it will be hurricane alberto :) Alright, im gonna try to go to bed now. If I wake up and TD1/TS Alberto has formed... well that would be awesome. →Cyclone[[User talk:Cyclone1|''1]]'→''' 05:17, 9 June 2006 (UTC) : Please don't say things in such a panicky tone; we're certainly not trying to spread panic here. : NOGAPS has been tracking this for a long time now (since May 26ish). Model consensus doesn't develop the existing "cyclone" much - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/compare/06060818/M44.html - but the GFDL does create a new circulation and develop it. None of the other models available at that page seem to do the same, though. : The strange circular blowup of convection over the open Carribean (in the past couple of hours) is eerily Wilma-esque...conditions are definately not as favorable as back then though. --AySz88^ ^ 05:45, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::Hey now, we all know how wacky the GFDL can be. NSLE(T+ ) at 05:55 UTC (2006-06-09) ::Most of the models forecast relaxed shear after 48 hours, and the trough responsible for all the dry air in the area will probably lift out before then. If this blob survives until then, there's a good chance that we'll have Alberto. --Coredesat 05:57, 9 June 2006 (UTC) Where it previously said no signs of organisation, and only possible if it moved away from land... 5:30 a.m. EDT TWO: THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING EASTERN YUCATAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND. Confirmation it's heading away from land, then? Cand efinitely see a TD, I still don't think we'll get Alberto though. NSLE (T+ ) at 11:14 UTC (2006-06-09) :Large blow-up of convection NE of Honduras. Low pressure is forming. Serious threat of Alberto forming.-Code1390 14:38, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::Sorry if I acted panicy, I was celebrating not Panicking. And I'm the biggest overreactor on Wikipedia. →Cyclone[[User talk:Cyclone1|''1]]'→''' 14:50, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::: *Sigh*. Low pressure already exits. That blow-up of convection is just one of a series that have been going on in that area for over a day now, and is already dissipating. It will soon be followed by another one, but that is not evidence of any organization. This is a large and strong area of low pressure battling some fairly significant shear. If the shear relaxes when the system is over water, we could easily have a hurricane. As-is I can see a TS if this system develops at all. ::: I know that everyone is rooting for the season to get underway. My advice is to hold your horses and not get overly excited even over this system. Things will start out fairly slowly, with any June storms coming and going before the next storm starts to churn. But don't worry: By late August we will be going "Oh no! Is this going to become yet another storm?". --EMS | Talk 14:57, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::::Ummm, celebrating? A tropical cyclone forming is nothing to celebrate! Try and keep some perspective people, if you predict something is certain to become a TS when the actual chances are lower, it makes you seem callous. If it becomes Alberto, it becomes Alberto, but we should be wanting it to just dissipate! And EMS I hope that is what people say, but I get the feeling this talk page will have "is this one going to be Kirk, I hope it is!!!!!"--Nilfanion (talk) 14:57, 9 June 2006 (UTC) Sorry, again, I was (past tense) celebrating. I've calmed down now and seen that if it forms, its not going to form within like 30 minutes, which I somehow expect every invest I see to do. Now normal calm meteorogy mode has kicked in and I calmly watch the system for development. I need therapy sometimes I swear. →Cyclone[[User talk:Cyclone1|''1]]'→''' 15:07, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :Just heard, Hurricane Hunters are being dispatched this afternoon, we'll soon see. →Cyclone[[User talk:Cyclone1|''1]]'→''' 15:17, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :Anyway, the NHC/NOAA is sending out a plane to investigate tommorrow morning.-Code1390 15:18, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::Uh... Hello, how are you? →Cyclone[[User talk:Cyclone1|''1]]'→''' 15:21, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::: Look at the posting times: You can file this under "edit conflict" and not looking at the other poster's message. --EMS | Talk 15:37, 9 June 2006 (UTC) Lol, yeah... thats a coincidence for you. →Cyclone[[User talk:Cyclone1|''1]]'→''' 15:39, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :11.30 a.m.: THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT OR TWO Also, interestingly, NRL puts this at 25 kt - effectively depression strength. NSLE (T+ ) at 15:59 UTC (2006-06-09) :: "Effectively depression strength"? I should hope so, as there is no lower limit on "depression stregth". All this system needs is a closed surface circulation, and give the warm core (which it will have) and the thunderstorms you will have a TD. (It would have been more interesting in this system was already of storm strength.) --EMS | Talk 16:40, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::: Hm, I'd say that the lower limit of "depression strength" is a little over twice as fast as however quickly the system is moving, else it's unlikely to have a closed circulation relative to the ground. --AySz88^ ^ 19:44, 9 June 2006 (UTC) CNN is reporting its potential to be a TD; gotta get the people scared, ya know. --Golbez 16:23, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :I'm surprised the media isn't telling Florida to watch out for major hurricane Alberto. Anyway, this system is looking very good. -Code1390 18:20, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::It's definitely looking like TD1. I think it will be uprgaded at 6PM, 11PM at the latest. -Winter123 19:05, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :::It's interesting to note that Arlene developed on this day last year, in almost the same spot, and Alberto (Yeah.... I went there) will probably move north as well, except then I think it will turn NE over FL. -Winter123 19:09, 9 June 2006 (UTC) Hello, Alberto? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html What do you think? 87.122.28.7 18:25, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :I think we have a winner. --Golbez 18:33, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :: I think this is even better. It looks like in the last frame or two there are some visible banding features. TimL 18:38, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :::Plus some organized outflow to the northeast and southwest, methinks. As well as a hint of an organized circulation. Lets not get overly excited, but it looks quite a bit like a cyclone trying to form.87.122.28.7 18:48, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::::Oh, don't worry, I'm already overly excited! :-P I think it will be upgraded this evening. -Winter123 19:37, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :: Over at CIMSS there is little to no indication of low level cirulation yet. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8ir.html and 850mb vorticity is not thet impressive. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html TimL 20:03, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::: I think the low level center is evident...it just doesn't fit the TPC definition of "tight low-level circulation", and its thunderstorm activity is sheared off a bit to the northeast, displacing the warm core that is trying to form. Mild to moderate shear is good to spin up lows into tropical storms, but not much more. This system will probably be sheared for the next few days as it moves in tandem with an upper shear axis just ahead of the system, if it can ever escape it. Think Arlene of last year. Thegreatdr 20:25, 9 June 2006 (UTC) 5:30 TWO: SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THATTHE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. jj 21:27, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :This is gonna be Tropical Depression 1 at the least. -Tcwd | Talk 21:29, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :: I gather that your crystal ball is well polished :-(. (Actually, I rate the chances of this system at least becoming TD 1 to be good, but "don't count your chickens before they hatch".) --EMS | Talk 21:47, 9 June 2006 (UTC) the main convection looks like a tropical depression, IMO though the radar I am looking at is about 45 mins old There is posted tropical formation alert at NRL page. (VOFFA 22:02, 9 June 2006 (UTC)) :It's definitely looking a lot better right now. This'll probably be TD 1 by this time tomorrow, if not earlier. --Coredesat 22:10, 9 June 2006 (UTC) ::I agree. Maybe at the 11pm advisory even? I'd give it a 90% chance of developing now. My current prediction makes it almost a carbon copy of Hurricane Allison (1995). CrazyC83 23:16, 9 June 2006 (UTC) :::The NRL has a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert out on it... NSLE (T+ ) at 01:17 UTC (2006-06-10) Latest Dvorak numbers for 90L are T1.5/1.5. --Coredesat 01:34, 10 June 2006 (UTC) I'd give it a good 90% chance for it to develop now. Plus, take a look at this (from the TWD): ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N85.5W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA AROUND 3 MB. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME MORE CONDUCTIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM. -Tcwd | Talk 01:38, 10 June 2006 (UTC) 10:30 p.m. TWO: CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS... BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR CUBA AT ANY TIME ON SATURDAY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. Not looking good (from the human POV), meteorologically it's definitely looking good. NSLE (T+ ) at 02:47 UTC (2006-06-10) :It's getting good ventalation from that trough, but it's also shearing it a bit. I still think it will form in the next day, as NHC says. -Winter123 03:19, 10 June 2006 (UTC) ::Heh, the 205AM update was posted at 1:45. SOMEONE's getting a bit anxious! ...SPECIAL FEATURE... 1005 MB LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AS OF YET BUT THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF BANDING FEATURES AND LARGE (3-4 MB) 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL SIGNS GENERALLY POINT TO IT DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE ROUGHLY TAKE THE SYSTEM IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY ABOUT THIS TIME TOMORROW. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE W OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN EXPANSION OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 18N83W. FOR NOW.. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA WESTWARD AS SOME OF THOSE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED OVER 8 INCHES OF RAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 85W. :: -Winter123 05:45, 10 June 2006 (UTC) :::There was already a 40 knot ship report from 06z. It appears they are waiting for reconnaisance to start the tropical storm this afternoon. That's why they're anxious...they trust the plane more than surface observations, it appears. Thegreatdr 10:02, 10 June 2006 (UTC) :::Well, it is expected that it will be classed as a tropical depression very soon. In all likelihood it will also become Alberto. :::If these reports are anything to go by, it could follow a similar path to Charley. However, I don't think 150mph is at all realistic this early in the season. Pobbie Rarr 11:54, 10 June 2006 (UTC) Tropical Depression One NRL has 01L.NONAME up, but not on the NHC. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 12:10, 10 June 2006 (UTC) :The NHC will probably do an 8:30 a.m. thing or something. NSLE (T+ ) at 12:13 UTC (2006-06-10) ::But how would the NRL know before the NHC? And does this mean that our first depression of the season has formed and we can write it on the season page, or do we have to wait for the NHC to say so? íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 12:14, 10 June 2006 (UTC) :::I'm assuming because NRL are the ones that conduct Hurricane Hunter flights? I don't know. And no, I think we should wait for confirmation from the NHC in case NRL have it wrong and jumped the gun. NSLE (T+ ) at 12:20 UTC (2006-06-10) :It's alive! The NHC has it up! Here we come alberto; and here we come 2006 hurricane season! íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 13:03, 10 June 2006 (UTC) I've started a bit of the section, including the infobox. It really needs expanding, though I'm sure that's not gonna be a problem once all the active members get here. -Tcwd | Talk 13:13, 10 June 2006 (UTC) :So what happenned to the note I put up there? I thought that when the NHC did TS advisories it was important. If it's important, put it back. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 13:48, 10 June 2006 (UTC) ::I didn't remove it. But I think whoever did removed it because it is 'recommended' by the NHC, and not actually official. But I'm not sure. -Tcwd | Talk 13:59, 10 June 2006 (UTC) So I wake up to TD1, and likely to be Alberto by this afternoon. CrazyC83 14:37, 10 June 2006 (UTC) RECON currently flying into it. In about 30 minutes we should know if it is a tropical storm. At this time, they are about 130 miles from the center and 38 mph is the top flight level winds. I'd expect a special advisory at 2 pm CDT if it is found to be a TS. CrazyC83 17:55, 10 June 2006 (UTC) :No way it is a TS. It only has a broad surface low, which is outrunning the convection into dry air and shear. Just look at the water vapor to see what I mean. I don't think it will be upgraded to Alberto today. -Winter123 18:41, 10 June 2006 (UTC) ::The NHC has it at 80+% chance of Alberto in the next twelve hours, from what I've seen.--Guillaume Hebert 20:02, 10 June 2006 (UTC) Consistent 45 knot recordings at flight level now...that likely translates into a 35-40 knot surface wind. Special advisory soon? Otherwise it should be Alberto at 11:00 pm. CrazyC83 22:10, 10 June 2006 (UTC) :where do you find this info before it comes out? I don't get it; do you have behind the scenes acess or something? íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 22:13, 10 June 2006 (UTC) ::RECON data coming into Storm2K. CrazyC83 22:14, 10 June 2006 (UTC) :::I wouldn't be surprised if they left it as a TD in the next advisory. It really doesn't look all that healthy right now. --Coredesat 22:17, 10 June 2006 (UTC) :::Um, any (direct) link to that recon data or Storm2K? — Super-Magician (talk • • count) ★ 00:03, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::::Here you go. --Coredesat 00:37, 11 June 2006 (UTC) Recon has finished their mission without sending in a vortex message. They may have been unable to find a closed circulation. Their next mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 5:15 EDT. --Coredesat 22:48, 10 June 2006 (UTC) Do you think this will strengthen to a tropical storm or a hurricane? A hurricane as the first storm of the season is pretty rare, isn't it? --Revolución hablar ' ' 01:49, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :June Atlantic hurricanes are extremely rare. I think the only one was Agnes of 1972. No way this will strengthen to a hurricane is such a hostile environment. But it definitely has a shot at being Alberto in an hour- it appears to have a closed low and is wrapping up now. -Winter123 01:59, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::Not as rare as you think. There's also Allison (1995), Alberto (1982), Abby and Brenda (1968), Alma (Cat. 3 in 1966), Hurricane 3 (1959), Audrey (Cat. 4 in 1957), and Alice (1954) since 1950. Hurricanehink (talk) 02:12, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::Holy crap. SOMEONE was bored. :-P I think at the 11AM advisory it will be named.-Winter123 03:03, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::::LOL, it just took a few seconds. I remembered most of them. Also, looks like it will not be Alberto yet. Hopefully tomorrow, I'm in the mood for a storm. Hurricanehink (talk) 03:16, 11 June 2006 (UTC) Lovely :AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. 70.177.68.209 03:18, 11 June 2006 (UTC) Regarding the number of hurricanes in June, I was bored about two weeks ago and I counted how many I could find; It was 31 'canes : 1851 #1, 1854 #1, 1858 #1, 1867 #1, 1889 #2, 1909 #2, 1929 #1, 1959 #3, 1968 Abby / Brenda, 1888 #1, 1957 Audrey, 1986 Bonnie, 1966 Alma, 1936 #3, 1906 #2, 1886 #1 / #2 / #3, 1945 #1 (TS to Cat 3 in 6 hours), 1995 Allison, 1954 Alice1, 1934 #2, 1904 #1, 1893 #1, 1913 #1, 1933 #2, 1982 Alberto, 1972 Agnes, 1902 #2, 1921 #1. -- RattleMan 04:43, 11 June 2006 (UTC) Wow, someone pressed the "convection off" switch... Though some new convection's up near the "L" marking the depression's old position (if you turn on Trop Forecast Points). If we're really unlucky this might actually end up helping the organization of the storm, but I don't think it'll be Alberto anytime soon regardless. --AySz88 ^-^ 05:48, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :Models are developing it less and less... -Winter123 06:07, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :: TPC isn't really giving up on it yet; I think they're being rather aggressive... --AySz88 ^-^ 06:16, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR 23.4N 86.2W AT 11/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 290 MILES WSW OF KEY WEST MOVING NNW 8 KT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WITHOUT RECON AND THERE ARE STILL PROBABLY MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE CIRCULATION. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED THE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH DESPITE THE SLOPPY APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT WINDS ARE RECORDED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A BAND OF SHOWERS.. THOUGH DIMINISHING WITH TIME... MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS GETTING LESS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS PARKED NEAR 18N83W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION. A GENERAL NLY TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH MORE OF A CURVE TO THE NE LATER AS A SHORTWAVE NEAR OKLAHOMA TONIGHT CAUSES A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO EXACTLY HOW RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. It looks like a dominant center is developing pretty far to the west of the current advisory position. This would pretty much spell doom for the depression, seeing as this new center is in the area of dry air to the northwest. --Coredesat 10:09, 11 June 2006 (UTC) Tropical Storm Alberto Both NRLs (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi and http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi) have it up. I guess it'll be upgraded by the NHC at 10 AM advisory? -- RattleMan 13:45, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :I bet they're making their advisory package right now. Lookit ickle Alberto... It hardly has a leg to stand on. —BazookaJoe 14:08, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::The satellite images don't look too impressive.. -Tcwd | Talk 14:35, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::NHC has upgraded it to Alberto in the 10 AM advisory! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml -- RattleMan 14:38, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::::Does anyone else think its weird that it strengthened to a TS even though if you look at the pressure, its weakening?Fableheroesguild 14:46, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::::Maybe they felt FOX News, CNN, and MSNBC needed a better headline than "first major depression of the season takes aim for Florida". --tomf688 (talk - ) 14:50, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::::Yeah, i found it wierd as well. They might've been desperate (agreeing with tomf688)? But its probably mainly due to the wind speed. -Tcwd | Talk 14:52, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::::: I think it's the ugliest storm I've ever seen! -- WmE 14:56, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::::::Recon reports found winds around 51 knots at flight level though...it looks a lot like Arlene, which nearly became a hurricane with such pathetic organization! CrazyC83 15:04, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::::::First named storm of the season. Well, first to be named this year. (Darn that Zeta). I noticed that BAM is taking it over to mexico, but generally computer models has it flying over Florida and then up the east coast. SargeAbernathy 15:18, 11 June 2006 (UTC) This is sooooo Arlene 2.0! Could it be a harbinger for things to come? CrazyC83 16:07, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :Dude, this is like Arlene x10. I actually laughed when I first saw the sattelite today- I have never seen a tropical storm so exposed before. On sattelite, it actually appears to be strengthening, even though the center is completely exposed. -Winter123 17:56, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :: Well, that's the visible satellite; the cloud cover area might be increasing, but the IR shows you how the little convection it has is getting very shallow. --AySz88 ^-^ 18:26, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::This thing has completely stalled. I think it will follow the NHC's second possibility and "DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR." The circulation will sit there and spin it self to death, but the rain will still cause flooding in FL. -Winter123 18:57, 11 June 2006 (UTC) This has got to be the weirdest TS I've seen. jj 19:18, 11 June 2006 (UTC) Looks almost subtropical...anyone else notice a second low-level center (near 27N 85W) in the visible imagery? Runningonbrains 19:31, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :Heh, i'd say even that "second low-level center" looks more impressive than Alberto. That thing looks like its gonna dissipate.. -Tcwd | Talk 19:56, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::Well, it stuck around for a second advisory, and the NHC seems to still be convinced that Alberto will reach Florida. —Cuiviénen 20:36, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::I've a feeling it won't strengthen at all though.. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...SHOW A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT CROSS FLORIDA. .. I think the thing will weaken, but definately will cross Florida. -Tcwd | Talk 20:43, 11 June 2006 (UTC) The center is redeveloping farther to the north- it actually appears that the old center and the new one will merge. Yep, as of right now it has TWO centers of circulation!! -Winter123 20:55, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :Really? Does the NHC or any other official forecasts say so? -Tcwd | Talk 20:58, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::Just look at the Visible if you don't beleive me. The NHC is going with the stronger, southernmost one. But it looks as if they are going to merge before 11PM. -Winter123 21:03, 11 June 2006 (UTC) Well, the southernmost circulation seems to be becoming less shallow... a little. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 21:19, 11 June 2006 (UTC) I was not talking about hurricanes in June, I meant the FIRST storm of the season. That's what I was asking. How many hurricanes have their been that were the FIRST storm of the season? --Revolución hablar ' ' 21:27, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::If Agnes is the only one, and this becomes a hurricane, it might be the record for earliest forming Atlantic hurricane. --Revolución hablar ' ' 21:32, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::: Well Alex from 2004 was a major hurricane and the first of the season, but not exactly in June... Jamie|C 21:35, 11 June 2006 (UTC) Audrey was a june major hurricane, and Abel was a may major hurricane if I recall... :Abel? I looked that up and I found a site with a date from August... --Revolución hablar ' ' 21:43, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::Able, not Abel. In 1951. —Cuiviénen 21:44, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :: Andrew? It was the first storm of the season, and it was a major hurricane. Titoxd(?!?) 21:45, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::Andrew was in August...--Nilfanion (talk) 21:47, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::::Yeah, so this may be the earliest forming Atlantic hurricane...EVER. Not as bad as the 2005 season? This is going to be much worse! --Revolución hablar ' ' 21:48, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::::Earliest forming Atlantic hurricane.. umm no that honor goes to Hurricane Able of 1951 (which was a category 3) in May.--Nilfanion (talk) 21:52, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::::::Then this would be the second earliest forming Atlantic hurricane. --Revolución hablar ' ' 21:57, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::::::Why don't you look through the seasonal articles before saying that? Hurricane Alma (1966) was a hurricane on June 6; and odds are there are more. Its not that likely that Alberto will reach hurricane strength anyway.--Nilfanion (talk) 22:02, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::::::::Don't forget Allison in '95. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 22:54, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::::::::Am I the only one that remembers Hurricane 1 of 1908, a Cat 2 in March? Jake52 My Talk 18:58 11 June 2006 (EST) ::::::::::I already mentioned it below. Check it out. -- RattleMan 23:04, 11 June 2006 (UTC) At long last Alberto has arrived. I can't believe how disorganised it is though. Any chance of this thing becoming a hurricane before landfall (unlikely I know)? Pobbie Rarr 21:45, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :You know, there's always a chance, but in this case its about a .001% chance. -Winter123 22:04, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::The NHC still gives it a 15% chance within the next 24 hours. —Cuiviénen 23:04, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :::Well, I think that after storms from last year that defied all the odds, the NHC's trying to stay on the safe side now.. -Tcwd | Talk 01:39, 12 June 2006 (UTC) If you guys are talking about the earliest forming Atlantic hurricane, I'd say that goes to #1 of 1908: Reached 'cane status and peak of 85 knots on MARCH 7. -- RattleMan 22:07, 11 June 2006 (UTC) :That's mind-boggling... Kind of surprising we didn't have something like that last year... -Winter123 22:09, 11 June 2006 (UTC) ::The GFS dissapates alberto in the GoM in about 2 days, and the rain produces a revatively weak ocean storm. I pretty much agree with that at this point, as it does not look like shear will ever lessen. -Winter123 22:16, 11 June 2006 (UTC) NHC is saying that once it pulls through tomorrow, it will organize slightly and strengthen about 10 mph before trucking through Florida. Does that seem to be the majority opinion, now? It made it this far, I guess. —BazookaJoe 03:33, 12 June 2006 (UTC) ::It certainly could. On sattelite, it appears that an upper high MIGHT be trying to move over it. But the models I've seen all weaken it before landfall. -Winter123 04:09, 12 June 2006 (UTC) :::I checked the Water Vapor for the first time in a while. It's hard to beleive a TS can exist in such dry air! That T-storm on the Yucatan MAY help moisten it up a bit. -Winter123 04:15, 12 June 2006 (UTC) I don't know where everybody went (to bed?), but check out that huge blow-up of storms close to the center! —BazookaJoe 12:56, 12 June 2006 (UTC) Hurricane warnings but still TS Alberto jj 14:39, 12 June 2006 (UTC) :Hurricane warnings? Where? I only see TS warnings along the Florida coast. (That said, it's strengthening significantly now.) —Cuiviénen 14:46, 12 June 2006 (UTC) Still TS Alberto.... but 10 AM CDT advisory says 70 mph winds!! The official track has it becomming a hurricane this afternoon! —BazookaJoe 14:48, 12 June 2006 (UTC) :Wow, just saw that. Crazy, coming from such a disorganized system. —Cuiviénen 14:50, 12 June 2006 (UTC) ::Yep, to bed in most cases. The Loop Current strikes again... CrazyC83 15:21, 12 June 2006 (UTC) ::Darn Murphy's Law :P Wow, I'm ... impressed, with the gulf and this storm's willingness to stay alive. However I'm worried for the coastal residents as it gets stronger. SargeAbernathy 15:43, 12 June 2006 (UTC) Since it was redirected, I have brought back the sandbox article here to use and update. If we want to split it back, that can be merged back. CrazyC83 15:58, 12 June 2006 (UTC) At around 12, someone on The Weather Channel said that Alberto's pressure had dropped to 995 mbar earlier. Does this count or do we have to rely on the official advisories/discussions? — Super-Magician (talk • • count) ★ 17:56, 12 June 2006 (UTC) :Nothing is official unless it comes from the NHC itself. --Coredesat 18:45, 12 June 2006 (UTC) ::All right. And I guess we shouldn't trust The Weather Channel either because they were reporting the pressure wrong - 998 mbar when it should have been 997 mbar. — Super-Magician (talk • • count) ★ 19:12, 12 June 2006 (UTC) I'm confused - on the one hand the 3-day cone shows the expectation that Alberto will soon become a hurricane, but on the other the possibility of hurricane-force winds being achieved is still set at below 50%. The next advisory should be very interesting (half an hour away). Pobbie Rarr 19:31, 12 June 2006 (UTC) :It looked like it EXPLODED a few hours ago, but now the shear is winning again. And now it's NOT supposed to cross into the Atlantic??? Wow, this is a weird storm. Do you think this is a precursor to another hard to predict season? -Winter123 19:38, 12 June 2006 (UTC) :::The NHC's latest advisory would like to disagree with you. 70% odds of hurricane level strength within the next twelve hours. From a system that everyone (myself included) thought would get sheared to the death sometime yesterday. (Oh, and they'r predicting it not only surviving the crossing, but re-strengthening to storm-strength over the Atlantic)--65.94.4.166 20:56, 12 June 2006 (UTC) ::Unfortunately, it looks like it. While June storms generally give little info on the rest of the season (1995 had a June hurricane and very active, 1982 had a June hurricane and very inactive), the fact is strengthening under heavy shear could show that warm water temperatures are winning out. Imagine if this thing had no shear to deal with.... Hurricanehink (talk) 19:49, 12 June 2006 (UTC) :::We'd likely have a major hurricane on our hands then. Fortunately, that is rare in June, but come August, who knows...the dry air won't be there either... CrazyC83 20:53, 12 June 2006 (UTC) ::Wow, last night the storm was still in pretty bad shape... -Tcwd | Talk 20:26, 12 June 2006 (UTC) Since now Alberto is a 70mph TS it is very probable that it strenghtens into a hurricane, but do u think it has a chance of strenghtening into a category 2 hurricane or perhaps a category 3? I give it a 40% chance that Alberto becomes a category 2 and a 5% chance that it becomes a category 3 hurricane. Memicho 22:36, 12 June 2006 (UTC) :First of all, this should be in the section for Alberto. Secondly, no chance in the world of either one. It's more likely to weaken than anything else, given its current satellite presentation. Anyone who says it will is wishcasting. --Coredesat 22:47, 12 June 2006 (UTC) :I do notice that moisture is TRYING to wrap around the center, however. Hewever, Winds are only 29mph near the center right now!!! -Winter123 23:54, 12 June 2006 (UTC) This storm should be called Arlene 2. It's almost exactly the same storm... bob rulz 23:55, 12 June 2006 (UTC) Check out the latest imagery - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-l.jpg and http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/ir2-l.jpg. Looks like an eye to me. Pobbie Rarr 01:15, 13 June 2006 (UTC) :Yea, barely; but all the same, it's an eye. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 01:29, 13 June 2006 (UTC) ::A low-level eye, yes, the center of circulation. It's had it visible on and off for days. —BazookaJoe 01:33, 13 June 2006 (UTC) :::Arlene also had an "eye" at landfall. -Winter123 01:57, 13 June 2006 (UTC) Stewart must have been in a rush to get the 11pm Discussion out: ... ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MISSOURI VALLEYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE RIGHT OR EAST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS A LITTRL FATER THAN THE PREVIOSU ADVISORY AFTER ALBERTO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. IT IS POSSIBLE ... ... OF THE CYCLONE AHS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE SINCE 12Z THIS MORNING. SINCE THERE IS AVAILABLE INSTABOLILY TO SUPPORT THE REGENERATION OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ... Very informative though. They're still forecasting it to reach Cat 1 status. -- RattleMan 03:17, 13 June 2006 (UTC) : I tried to reach for the "edit this page" button when I saw that... :P Titoxd(?!?) 03:22, 13 June 2006 (UTC) :: Me too! Too much Wikipedia, I think. Anyway, Alberto's pressure has dropped again, so it's still strengthening. I think they'll upgrade it at the 1 AM intermediate advisory, or (less likely) at the 4 AM advisory. Of course, the hurricane warning may have just been inspired by the anger last year about early failures in predicting Katrina right before it hit Florida. —Cuiviénen 03:25, 13 June 2006 (UTC) ::: Hmm... it seems they're listening: CORRECTED SPELLING ERRORS Titoxd(?!?) 05:19, 13 June 2006 (UTC) Convection appears to be further from the center than ever at this point. I'm really surprised it's still tropical. If it loses its warm core overnight (which it might - recon found that the temperature in the center is only a degree or two C warmer than in the surrounding areas), they might declare it extratropical sooner than forecast. --Coredesat 03:35, 13 June 2006 (UTC) ::No more hurricaNE WARNINGS ...... ONLY TROPICAL STORM WARNING--65.9.47.42 14:46, 13 June 2006 (UTC) ::Alberto has weakened to a 50 mph tropical storm!!!!!!!!!--HurricaneRo 14:49, 13 June 2006 (UTC) The NHC has updated that Alberto has made landfall, but they made a quick mistake, posting this update instead: 000 WTNT61 KNHC 131633 TCUAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 ...WARNING... ...HEADER INFORMATION WAS OBTAINED FROM THE ...LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST FILE. CHECK THE ...HEADER BLOCK CAREFULLY, ESPECIALLY THE ...SYSTEM STATUS AND THE TIME-DATE LINE ******** TCU EXAMPLE ******** ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM ALICIA HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH... SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ALICIA HAD INCREASED TO HURRICANE FORCE...DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 7 PM CDT. ******** END EXAMPLE ******** FORECASTER LAST NAME $$ I looked at the archives and this update is factually accurate; 1983's Tropical Storm Alicia was upgraded to a hurricane on August 17th, 0000Z, which translates to 7 PM CDT. -- RattleMan 17:07, 13 June 2006 (UTC) ::Do you think it could regenerate into a TD at least when it moves off the NC coast? It has a good structure, and if it can retain that it has a chance. More likely it will be extratropical though. -Winter123 18:53, 13 June 2006 (UTC) Albert is holding strong.... staying at Tropical storm force...mayb it was actually a little stronger at landfall?? Also now there is damage in Savannah Georgia--HurricaneRo 03:43, 14 June 2006 (UTC) :::I can't believe that Alberto couldn't become a hurricane, it was so desperatering how it said during hours 70mph winds, it could never reach hurricane status. That is so Arlene. Memicho 03:50, 14 June 2006 (UTC) I totally agree ..reminds me of Arlene.. They were both big TS's and they reached same intensity...both hit same state and both were expected to reach Cat 1 status..well i saw the 5 day outlook and is Alberto really going to make landfall on Portugal?? ....Alberto could have been alot worse--HurricaneRo 04:17, 14 June 2006 (UTC) :Ireland. It'll be an extratropical storm. You'll see the NHC (and media) stop making noise about it once it gets past the Carolinas. —BazookaJoe 04:59, 14 June 2006 (UTC) ::The CHC will keep monitoring it though, particularly as it looks like the extratropical storm will pass over Newfoundland.--Nilfanion (talk) 08:04, 14 June 2006 (UTC) ::Don't you mean Iceland? The track goes pretty far north. — Super-Magician (talk • • count) ★ 14:29, 14 June 2006 (UTC) :::No I meant Newfoundland - the Canadian Hurricane Centre monitors Canadian interests. The CHC is a good source for advisory info as well as the NHC and HPC.--Nilfanion (talk) 15:14, 14 June 2006 (UTC) ::::Does the Ocean Prediction Center help us at all? CrazyC83 15:26, 14 June 2006 (UTC) Reformation? Could Alberto regenerate into a tropical or subtropical storm once it goes back over the Atlantic? CrazyC83 15:07, 14 June 2006 (UTC) :It could, but unless it dissapated to the point that the NHC considered less than a disturbance, it would still be Alberto. Worse (Best, depends on your POV), a restrenghtening to Tropical Storm that might cause minor problems around Newfoundland or such. Donovan Ravenhull 16:38, 14 June 2006 (UTC) ::I know it would still be Alberto no matter what. Restrengthening is likely, I am just thinking along the lines of regaining tropical characteristics. CrazyC83 17:32, 14 June 2006 (UTC) ::: That is conceivable but not predicted. It will not spend enough time over warm waters after it emerges into the Atlantic for that to happen, and it takes it for a system to transition from being extra-tropical to being tropical. BTW - Storms regaining tropical status after re-emerging into the Atlantic are not unknown. Hurricane Agnes reformed off of North Carolina after its remnants got to the Atlantic (and then it did its real damage). I have also seem more recent exmaples of this, but I cannot name them offhand at this time. --EMS | Talk 18:15, 14 June 2006 (UTC) ::::Didn't Allison 01 regain subtropical characteristics? íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 19:59, 14 June 2006 (UTC) :::::It did, but it wasn't moving nearly as quickly as Alberto is forecast to. --Coredesat 20:35, 14 June 2006 (UTC) Well, the HPC issued one advisory on Alberto, but they say it will be the last one. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 21:01, 14 June 2006 (UTC) :Yep, it's over water now. Best chance for reformation (although it is a slight one at best) would be about 12-24 hours from now. CrazyC83 21:06, 14 June 2006 (UTC) ::Is jdorje gonna add the HPC advisory to the track map? I added the data to the track file thingy; I hope that's ok. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 21:08, 14 June 2006 (UTC) :::Hello? íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 22:19, 14 June 2006 (UTC) It will strengthen into a pretty powerful storm, but I'm pretty sure it wont be tropical. -Winter123 22:13, 14 June 2006 (UTC) :Ex-Alberto isn't that powerful...yet. I'm under its clouds right now, and all I'm getting is moderate amounts of rain and some wind gusts. It's pretty calm as of 7:56 EDT (or EST, whatever). íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 11:56, 15 June 2006 (UTC) :No chance of it regaining tropical characteristics, especially given the very high shear over it (60-70 kt). --Coredesat 22:17, 14 June 2006 (UTC)